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Relative Valuation Update - US vs EM, Europe, and Foreign Developed

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Last fall, I detailed the correct way to frame relative valuations when comparing aggregated stock indices such as the MSCI USA Index and the MSCI ACWI ex-USA Index.  That post is very detailed, covering even the crucial currency aspect of relative performance between two foreign equity markets, and so it is worth reading in its entirety if you have not done so previously.   Read More

Not Even Buffett Can Escape Reversion to the Mean

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Thursday, June 07, 2018

Warren Buffett's performance as an investor has been extraordinary, and there is no doubt his savvy and skill are unmatched.  One need only look at the wealth he has created for his shareholders to see this; from 1965 through May of this year, $1 invested in Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway would be worth an astounding $14,975, while investors in the S&P 500 over the same period would have seen their $1 grow "only" to $144: Read More

Your Focus Should Be On Risk, Not Reward

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Monday, May 28, 2018

A common theme of this blog has been that the assumption of more risk does not go hand-in-hand with the reaping of greater rewards.  In fact, if anything, the opposite has been true historically, both in equity markets and in fixed income.  Experience has shown again and again that, for example, higher returns have emanated from lower-volatility stocks, and higher quality bonds have tended to outperform those of lower credit quality.  In both instances, - whether risk is defined by volatility (yes, volatility can be a risk), drawdowns, or total loss, - the more conservative option has generally performed better. Read More