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The Pain of Discipline or The Pain of Regret?

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Friday, January 12, 2018

With the relentless rise of equities over the past year, several clients have inquired of me whether they should be more aggressively postured with their investment portfolios.  Sensing that, for some, prior fears of market downturns have now been replaced with 'fear of missing out' (or "FOMO," as the term goes), I am always quick to remind them to think back over the past ten years and to remember how emotionally exhausted they all were during the declines of 2010-2011 and 2015-2016, let alone during the breathless descents of 2008-2009. Read More

The Limits of CAPE Analysis for Global Market Rotation

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Monday, January 08, 2018

The cyclically-adjusted price to earnings ratio, or "CAPE" ratio, is an extremely useful tool for valuation analysis as it has been shown to have a high explanatory power for market returns.  This has been demonstrated not just in the United States, but in many other world markets, too. Read More