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The Skew and Equal-Weighting

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Friday, June 22, 2018

Indexing advocates like to point to the historical skewness of stock returns as evidence that indexing by market valuation is the surest way to capture what rewards the stock market offers.  The logic of this popular argument seems sound:  history shows that only a handful of stocks are responsible for the market's aggregated gains over its history, and attempts by active management to beat the market are usually done so with concentrated portfolios, which inevitably underperform because active managers fail to identify, let alone capture, those few stocks that generate outsized gains. Read More

Relative Valuation Update - US vs EM, Europe, and Foreign Developed

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Last fall, I detailed the correct way to frame relative valuations when comparing aggregated stock indices such as the MSCI USA Index and the MSCI ACWI ex-USA Index.  That post is very detailed, covering even the crucial currency aspect of relative performance between two foreign equity markets, and so it is worth reading in its entirety if you have not done so previously.   Read More

Not Even Buffett Can Escape Reversion to the Mean

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Thursday, June 07, 2018

Warren Buffett's performance as an investor has been extraordinary, and there is no doubt his savvy and skill are unmatched.  One need only look at the wealth he has created for his shareholders to see this; from 1965 through May of this year, $1 invested in Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway would be worth an astounding $14,975, while investors in the S&P 500 over the same period would have seen their $1 grow "only" to $144: Read More