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Imagining the Next Bear Market (with Examples from the Last Two)

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Monday, July 31, 2017

In the midst of a prolonged bull market, investors have been waiting for a long time for the bear market's return.  While it is certain that the bull market will end at some point, it is obviously unclear what shape the bear market will take.   As I have written before, each bear market is unique in its own way, with some being very protracted inflationary or deflationary cycles, such as the 1970s or 1930s, and some being quick and relatively short-lived, such as the crash of 1987.   Read More

What You Probably Believe About the Bull Market Is Wrong

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Thursday, July 27, 2017

In early 2009, when the bull market began, a fair amount of financial commentators referred to the new upswing as a "bear market rally," meaning they considered it to be a minor counter-trend move, which would eventually give way to the broader trend, which of course was downward.  Obviously, the bull market has persisted, and is now one of the longest on record. This persistence, along with a steady expansion of multiples to levels previously associated with "bubble" territory, have contributed to a kind of cottage industry that has churned out myth after myth about the bull market, not least in regard to the sources of its energies, and the robustness of its duration. Read More

Examining the 2017 Surge in EM Equities

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Friday, July 21, 2017

2017 has started off as a good year for equities around the world, with all major regions of the world rallying.  As measured by MSCI, the U.S. equity market has returned about 9.5% through June, while the non-U.S. developed market index, the "EAFE," has returned more than 14%.  However, emerging markets have been 2017's clear winner so far, with the MSCI EM index delivering returns approaching 19%.   Read More

Developed Market Scorecard

by: Lawrence Hamtil  on Monday, July 03, 2017

Credit Suisse's Global Investment Returns Yearbook is always fun to read, not least because it is always full of fascinating financial history for the various developed markets with lengthy track records.  While I am not attempting here to offer a competing analysis to their wonderful product, I do think it would be interesting to look at the major developed markets with only more recent data (MSCI's in this case), and to add one or two twists to the data for a slightly different perspective. Read More