by: Lawrence Hamtil
Next month marks the beginning of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which saw the equity markets of several nations plunge more than eighty percent in less than two years, a drawdown the severity of which American investors have not experienced since the Great Depression. The point of this post is not to articulate the history and causes of the Asian crisis, - there are many detailed resources available for that, - but rather to illustrate that even modern markets can be subject to near total wealth destruction in less time than many of us can even imagine.
The countries most affected by the 1997 crisis were Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines. In the roughly ten year period prior to the crisis, all of these markets had generated handsome returns for investors, with the Philippines and Indonesia doing particularly well, generating total returns (in dollar terms) of more than 500% and 700%, respectively.
However, the crisis hit very hard, and suddenly, and the panic routed the equity markets of all these nations, even the generally more stable markets of South Korea and Singapore:
Several nations like Indonesia and Singapore recouped and surpassed their pre-crisis highs within a decade, - just in time for the global financial crisis, - while the rest have only recently reached new heights:
The lessons of the Asian financial crisis are, in my opinion, chiefly these. First, there can be huge risks associated with investing in single markets, particularly those in the emerging world with less stable currencies, more concentrated markets, and more volatile political backdrops. Secondly, even drawdowns of almost 100%, - such as that which Greece is currently experiencing, - do not have to be death sentences. Assuming productive policy shifts and a resumption of normal economic activity, a recovery from the brink of total loss is possible, though it almost certainly will take patience to realize.
Disclosure: The results are hypothetical results and are NOT an indicator of future results and do NOT represent returns that any investor actually attained. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect management or trading fees, and one cannot invest directly in an index.
This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Fortune Financial Advisors, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Fortune Financial Advisors, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.
The information provided above is obtained from publicly available sources and it is believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness.
Lawrence Hamtil is a fourteen-year veteran of the financial services industry, having served clients in all aspects of the business during his career, which started in 2002. In 2005, he joined Dennis Wallace of Fortune Financial Services, LLC, becoming, at the time, one of Multi-Financial Securities, Inc's youngest registered representatives. In 2008, Dennis and Lawrence made the decision to become fully independent by founding their own Registered Investment Advisory (RIA), Fortune Financial Advisors, LLC. He serves clients in the United States and Europe. His financial commentary has been referenced in Barron’s online edition.
You can connect with Lawrence on Twitter ( @lhamtil) or via email, firstname.lastname@example.org.
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