I am quite thankful for everyone who has helped spread the word about my blog over the last couple years. I am humbled to say that this year a few of my articles were even referenced by some of my finance heroes, such as Matt Levine, Jeff Saut, Matt Klein, and the Alpha Architect crew. It is a challenge to write on a regular basis, but it is one that I feel is richly rewarding. It is a bonus, of course, if any readers find the articles useful.
Anyway, here below are the most widely-read articles I wrote in 2017:
1. Of Pessimism and Pride – My philippic of sorts on what really drives noted bear John Hussman’s repeated – and wrong – calls on the stock market, and his refusal to admit he has been wrong.
2. Why You Probably Won’t Survive the Next Bear Market – I list a few reasons why investors who lose discipline as the market climbs will be setting themselves up for disaster when the tide inevitably goes out.
3. The Value of Lasting Moats – My article on the value of moats, particularly those in industries that are less subject to technological disruption.
4. Imagining the Next Bear Market – Using examples from the last two bear markets, I lay out some possibilities for what the next bear market may look like.
5. The Market Is Not As Top-Heavy As It May Seem – In this article, I demonstrate how, despite the obsession with a few celebrity stocks collectively referred to as the “FAANG” stocks, the S&P 500’s current composition is remarkably normal.
6. Faith In Compounding Is Not Enough – I explain why compounding is present in all aspects of our life, but in financial affairs, compounding is apparent only in retrospect, and is anything but a guarantee.
7. Developed Market Scorecard – This is a brief look at the success (or lack thereof) of the major developed equity markets in the MSCI universe, and what may explain the disparity in returns for a few of them.
8. Relative Equity Valuations, Diversification, and Creative Destruction – In this article, I describe how the key characteristics of diversification and dynamism set the U.S. equity market apart from all the rest.
9. Learning the Wrong Lessons – Here I discuss how a popular study with many implications can be abused by people eager to fit the findings to their chosen narrative.
10. The Corect Way to Frame Relative Valuations – In my opinion, this was my most important article, as it demonstrates how global equity market valuations should be contextualized before making allocation decisions based on aggregated data.
Thanks for reading, and have a great 2018!